Six months after the war between Iran and the United States began, the human cost runs into thousands of dead, Iran faces its worst economic crisis since the 1980s — and Western stock markets are at record highs.
The human cost
World Health Organization figures put Iranian deaths at 3,375, with more than 33,000 injured. The United States has lost 18 military personnel, with hundreds wounded. Dozens more have been killed in Israel and in Gulf states.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of fighting. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, succeeded him.
Iran’s economy
Iran is enduring what analysts describe as its worst economic crisis since the 1980s. The economy is projected to contract by 5.4 percent this year, inflation is above 80 percent and the rial has collapsed in value.
Medicine prices have tripled. One asthma patient described a generic inhaler rising from $5 to $15. “We are buying all our food items on credit because nobody has cash,” one Iranian blogger said.
The government has responded with intensified arrests and executions, though officials are reported to recognise that repression alone cannot resolve the crisis.
Oil, markets and the uneven toll
Brent crude rose from around $72 a barrel before the war to nearly $120, and remains about 20 percent up. Jet fuel is expected to cost 70 percent more than in 2025.
Equity markets, after an initial five-week slide, have more than recovered. Since the late-March low the Dow is up 19 percent, the S&P 500 22 percent and the Nasdaq 27 percent. Defence suppliers including Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics have gained.
Air travel has taken the strain. Spirit Airlines has ceased operations and Lufthansa has cut 20,000 flights, while fares, baggage fees and fuel surcharges have all risen.
High energy prices have accelerated the shift to electric vehicles. EV sales rose 110 percent in Singapore, 180 percent in New Zealand and 300 percent in Colombia; EVs are projected to account for 29 percent of vehicle sales in 2026.
The sharpest costs fall on the poorest. Fertiliser prices peaked 44 percent above pre-war levels in April. “An oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan,” said Carl Skau.
No clear winner
Despite six months of bombardment, Iran’s government remains entrenched. “The reality is the best-case scenario … is there won’t be a clear-cut winner,” said Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Sources: The Independent, Associated Press, NPR
