If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.
That’s what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.
In his “Now-cast” election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.
Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation’s highest office if voters took to the polls Monday.
Silver’s model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver’s model.
It’s the first time in Silver’s “Now-cast” forecast that Trump has been projected to win.
However, in his polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop off from where they recently were, hovering around 80%.
Silver raised eyebrows on Friday when he turned to Twitter to point out “how plausible it is that Trump could become president.”
Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 23, 2016
Trump has received a bump in the polls since the Republican National Convention in Cleveland wrapped up last week. He jumped ahead of Clinton in a set of new surveys released Monday.
In the RealClearPolitics average of several polls, Trump pulled ahead of Clinton by .2% on the back of four-consecutive polls showing him ahead of the former secretary of state. It’s the second time the entire election cycle that Trump has lead Clinton in the coveted polling average.